Hydrologic Impact of Climate Change in the Jaguari River in the Cantareira Reservoir System

A recent drought in Southeast Brazil affected the Cantareira reservoirs system (CRS), which supplies water to São Paulo megacity, and raised concerns on impacts that climate change may have budget at watershed scale. We propose identify particular summed contributions of key climatic variables variability Jaguari basin, main CRS tributary, using forcing–response relationships derived from projections individual elasticities temperature. Besides, we investigated whether hydrological effects anomalous were comparable patterns simulated future climate. thoroughly calibrated model for evapotranspiration (ET) discharge (Q) was used address our questions. found opposite mostly driven by rainfall changes: under increasing (decreasing) rainfall, mean ET increased (decreased) up +25% (−10%) Q +90% (−50%). Higher carbon dioxide concentrations strongly depleted stomatal conductance, thus ET, turn near proportions. Major critical management are suggested results. Even with a small reduction precipitation, event replicated similar intensities.